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Old 10-26-2017, 12:31 PM
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Default New study estimates nearly 1 million in US have MS, far higher than old 400K estimate

The MS Society has this breaking news....

Preliminary Results of MS Prevalence Study Estimate Nearly 1 Million Living with MS in the U.S.

In a study presented this week at ECTRIMS—the world’s largest MS research meeting—preliminary results from leading experts estimate nearly 1 million people are living with MS in the United States. This is more than twice the previously reported number, which was a result of a 1975 national study and subsequent updates. An important next step in confirming this prevalence number includes anticipated publication in a prominent medical journal.



The Prevalence of Multiple Sclerosis in the United States: A Population-Based Healthcare Database Approach

ECTRIMS Online Library. Wallin M. Oct 26, 2017; 199999

Abstract: P344
Type: Poster
Abstract Category: Clinical aspects of MS - 5 Epidemiology

Background: Within the US, the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) is poorly understood and inadequately characterized, but such information is important to support planning of health services and advocacy efforts. We aimed to develop a case definition to identify people with MS using health claims databases, and to apply this definition across the US to generate robust population-based MS prevalence estimates.

Methods: An MS case definition was developed and validated in three independent administrative databases. We applied this definition to identify MS cases between 2008 and 2010 using the following health care databases: Optum, Truven, Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC), Medicare and Medicaid. We estimated the three-year cumulative prevalence, and standardized to the 2010 US population.

Results: Among individuals with at least one health claim for demyelinating disease, the case definition had a sensitivity of 86%, specificity: 76-82%, and positive predictive value: 96-98% when compared to physician-adjudicated diagnoses. The unadjusted cumulative prevalence of MS for 2008-2010 for the private insurance databases was 208 per 100,000 (95% CI: 205-211) for Optum and 208 per 100,000 (95% CI: 207-210) for Truven. The cumulative prevalence for the national VA health care system was 177 per 100,000 (95% CI: 174-181), and for KPSC was 110 per 100,000 (95% CI: 106-114). The female: male ratio for MS prevalence was about 3:1 across databases and a US geographic prevalence gradient was found. A final integrated national MS cumulative prevalence estimate will be generated and stratified by age, sex and geographic region.

Conclusion: The US national cumulative MS prevalence rates for 2008-10 are the highest reported to date and provide a contemporary understanding of the disease burden. Our rigorous algorithm-based approach to estimating prevalence is novel, efficient and has the potential to be used for other chronic conditions.

Dave Bexfield
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Old 10-26-2017, 10:18 PM
Lmh Lmh is online now
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Default Ectrim

I've always thought that 400,000 number was way off! I have neighbors with MS, co workers with MS, gym friends with daughters that have MS...
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Old 11-01-2017, 07:45 PM
GoatHerder GoatHerder is offline
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 75

Originally Posted by Lmh View Post
I've always thought that 400,000 number was way off! I have neighbors with MS, co workers with MS, gym friends with daughters that have MS...
Yeah, I'm on your side on that one. I've known so many others with it, that 500k always seemed a bit low..
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Old 11-07-2017, 01:10 PM
Rob Rob is offline
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Location: Michigan
Posts: 22

Dave, The article link isn't about the 1 million, it goes to this article, "Results Announced from Phase 2 Clinical Trial of Ibudilast Suggest Reduction of Brain Atrophy (Shrinkage) in People with Progressive MS
October 26, 2017"
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